Waiting for the Supervirus
Waiting for the While the world's attention is occupied by the unnecessarily inflated topic of Covid-19, we are in real danger of superinfection. There are an estimated 1.67 million unknown viruses on our planet, and between 631'000 and 827'000 of them are capable of infecting humans *. Mammals alone carry at least 320'000 unknown viruses that are continuously evolving *. And while not all of them pose a threat, a fair number of pathogenic viruses are ready to make their interspecies jump.
Between two and five new zoonotic viruses are discovered each year, and scientists are currently aware of only 263 viruses that can infect humans. That is, we know almost nothing about 99.96% of the potential threats of a pandemic.
At any moment, a new Supervirus can manifest itself, which we are not ready to counteract. It will be as unexpected as the appearance of an asteroid from the direction of the Sun. The question is not IF, but WHEN. This has happened many times in the past, and will continue as long as there is a protein ecosystem on Earth.
There is no doubt that the current political system will respond to a future epidemic no less madly than to Covid-19. This can be safely asserted by observing the chaotic, convulsive and counterproductive efforts of the world bureaucracy. They has not adequately responded to MERS and SARS-CoV-1, and has not prepared action plans for similar challenges in the future. And in response to SARS-CoV-2, they offered nothing but the creation of a worldwide concentration camp.
In fact, new viruses may be incomparably more dangerous than SARS-CoV-2. For example, mortality from the MERS-CoV virus reaches 40%, from the Nipah virus (depending on the location of the outbreak) 40-75%, from the Ebola virus 85%, and from the Marburg virus 88%. This is a threatening problem because there is no treatment protocol or vaccine against these diseases. And it is not known whether it will be possible to create them in principle. For example, the HIV vaccine has not yet been created, and so far there is no hope of its appearance. The only thing that saves us so far is the low contagiousness of these viruses. However, this is not for long.
The threat of the Supervirus is as real as the threat of any war is. And just as states invest in national defense and prepare plans for a future war, we should prepare for a new Virus-X pandemic in the same way. It is impossible to prevent it, but it is quite possible to minimize losses.
Of course, the next epidemic may be as harmless as any seasonal SARS, and be no worse than Covid-19. But we must always be ready for any surprise. And to have at hand not only an emergency suitcase in case of evacuation, but an emergency plan A in case of virus X. If we cannot expect adequate support from the authorities, then we need to think about our individual salvation.
The culprits of the next pandemic are likely to be from the families of respiratory viruses - orthomyxoviruses, coronaviruses or paramyxoviruses. Less likely - from filoviruses, like the Ebola virus. Even less likely - from alphaviruses, which are associated with a number of human encephalitis diseases; from flaviviruses, like the WestNile virus. This is due to the fact that the latter are not yet transmitted by airborne droplets, but through insect bites.
We don't know if it will be deadly only for the elderly, like Covid, or vice versa, dangerous for young people, like the Spanish flu. The only thing we know about the future virus is that, at least in most people, there will be no immunity from it, caused by previous infection with similar viruses.
If we imagine those modifications that will allow the future virus to be successful, then on the basis of the examples already available, one or more of its possible features can be predicted:
1) physical differences that allow it to stay in suspension longer;
2) a dense lipid coating that provides reliable armor against adverse external conditions and attacks by immune cells;
3) a coating of cellular proteins of the affected organism, masking the pathogen as a host cell;
4) high negative electrical potential, repelling similarly charged immune cells;
5) a wide variety of docking receptors capable of passing the virus into the host cell;
6) complete blocking of the transmission of alarm signals sent by the affected cell;
7) the creation of false signals that disorientate the work of the immune system;
8) direct paralysis of the cells of the immune system;
9) weak immunogenicity in a healthy immune system;
10) damage to the central nervous system or brain;
11) the rate of replication, which is ahead of the rate of the immune response.
To be truly dangerous, Virus-X must be in the air, like flu viruses, making it easier to get infected. It must have a long incubation period (up to 45 days, like Nipah) to have ample opportunity for covert spread. It must affect vital organs and lead to disability, like the Lassa virus; or infect the nervous system, like the herpes-6 virus or the rabies virus; or infect the brain like the Nipah virus. It should cause a late or relapsing effect after many months, like the Hendra or Nipah viruses. Or cause birth defects that can show up many years later, like the Zika virus. It must be able to shut down the immune system to leave us defenseless, like the HIV virus. Or vice versa, it should hyperactivate and direct immunity against the cells of the body itself, like the SARS-CoV virus.
The virus of the next pandemic may have a much worse set of qualities than we can imagine. All our divination on coffee grounds is unable to predict what it will be like. We also cannot predict from what part of the world his disastrous procession will start. But most likely, this will happen in places with a high population density, a high density of interspecies contacts and a low sanitary culture. The primary reservoir will most likely be rodents or bats. The mediators can be pigs, camels, deer or dogs.
The picture of the unfolding of a new misfortune will be similar to the current one. At first, neither the transmission path, nor the latent period, nor the risk groups, nor the percentage of deaths or latent cases will be clear. It will not be known how long the victims have been spreading the virus. The long-term consequences of infection will not be known. It will not be known which is better - to acquire immunity due to infection or due to vaccination with the proposed agents.
For example, with varicella zoster virus, human papillomavirus, Haemophilus influenzae virus, Haemophilus influenzae type A, pneumococcal bacteria, natural immunity is no better than immunity acquired through vaccination. In many other cases, although natural immunity is better, the price for it is so high that no one is willing to take it. For example, with polio or tetanus. At the same time, with seasonal flu, if a person does not suffer from severe concomitant diseases, the meaning of vaccination is close to zero. The answer to the question, to which of the listed situations the future Supervirus can be attributed, will also be unclear at first.
WHO will naturally disperse the hysteria, and BigFarma, attracted by the smell of profit, will rush to develop and produce vaccines. It is not known how long this will take, whether the benefits of the vaccine will outweigh its harms, and whether this attempt will be successful at all, or whether the shameful farce of the Covid-19 vaccine will be repeated. In case of failure, we all face the threat of turning the planet into a prison zone, prolonged confinement in our own homes and walking in formation for forced public works in a chemical protection kit.
Even if an effective vaccine against a new virus turns out to be fundamentally possible, vaccination is not an immediate matter. In the most expedited procedure, the development, approval, production and mass injection of a vaccine can take several months, during which many people at risk will be stricken with infection, suffer the severity of symptoms of the disease and even be at risk of death.
One of the first important reference points will be the identification of the viral family to which the newly discovered virus belongs. This will allow recourse to those countermeasures that have already been tested for this family. Even if their effectiveness is low, for some time they can serve as at least some kind of protection and reduce the risk of death.
A respiratory virus like the flu is able to reach all major world capitals within 60 days. But it is not a fact that we will have such a head start in time. In fact, we may be the first victims. Until nothing good is known about the virus, the victims will have to use the old tried and tested arsenal of antiviral agents.
In addition to standard prescription drugs, we can seek help from natural, in particular herbal remedies. The table below attempts to compile an antiviral herbal preparation that is universal for all acute respiratory viral infections.
Attention! The text below is provided for discussion only. It reflects the personal opinion of the author and cannot be a guideline for treatment. The author does not assume responsibility for the consequences caused by the practical application of the ideas discussed here.
Platform for discussion is here.
This includes natural remedies most often found in herbal preparations of the East. As can be seen from the following table, they can adequately resist not only SARS, but also some other viral infections. In addition, from a variety of other plants, they are selected in such a way as to capture as many overlapping therapeutic targets as possible.
Ready-made plant extracts can be taken in the form offered by the market. Alternatively, the plant components in appropriate proportions are thoroughly ground, mixed and packaged in gelatin capsules. If andrographis and wormwood extracts are purchased by weight, their packaging is obligatory because they have a very strong and pronounced taste.
Naturally, the composition presented above is preliminary. We cannot know for sure in advance which of the plant components will be most suitable for one or another future pathogenic virus. There are profound and fundamental differences between RNA and DNA viruses, between enveloped and non-enveloped viruses *, just as there are differences between gram-positive and gram-negative bacteria, or between cancer cells and normal cells. Various viruses use different receptors and biochemical paths of their life cycle that do not always coincide, which complicates the creation of a universal means of combating them.
But, surprisingly, most of the plants selected here show an unusually wide range of their activity, and are able to stop the development of pathogens, regardless of whether it is a bacterium, fungus, virus, parasite, or its own abnormal cell. And a combination of several of them could tightly cover all the intended targets, even if their effect is not cumulative.
This means that they can be used as universal prophylaxis or universal adjuvant treatment until more specific and more successful compounds and countermeasures against this virus are identified. At the very least, it will be useful in acute respiratory diseases. They may even help us hold out until the epidemic naturally subsides, or until an effective vaccine is available, if one is developed.
If a suspected SARS is at or slightly above the severity of a typical seasonal flu, these herbal remedies will mildly relieve symptoms and shorten hospital stays. The course of admission is designed for 20 days. Firstly, this is enough for SARS, even for Covid-19. In addition, any exogenous substances tend to lose their therapeutic properties with long-term use. For example, echinacea becomes ineffective after 7-10 days of use. Fortunately, most selected herbs can be taken for 3-6 months, but then you still have to take a break.
As a rule, herbal remedies are less effective than specialized synthetic drugs. However, as the experience of Covid-19 shows, some of them can successfully compete with standard antivirals, and at the same time they are less toxic to body cells. In addition, natural remedies, especially when they act in a complex way, do not contribute to the development of drug resistance to them. The fact that plants have successfully used their unchanged intracellular set of toxins against pests for millions of years is encouraging.
In severe cases, herbal remedies are likely not to be strong enough. In this case, in addition to what the official treatment protocol will suggest, or in addition to this, it would be reasonable to consider some drugs that are used to treat other diseases, have a well-studied profile and have shown themselves positively in the treatment of various viral diseases. It is called Drug repurposing.
Unfortunately, a stronger therapeutic effect of drugs means more side effects and stronger interactions both between drugs themselves and between drugs and herbs.
The high frequency of mutations in RNA viruses contributes to the development of resistance to antiviral vaccines. Therefore, targeting the factors of the aggressor, constantly changing its appearance, is fundamentally a Sisyphean work. Compared to the genetic variability of viral genomes, host genetic variability is very low, and therefore targeting host factors can create a stable barrier against multiple virus genotypes, and even against different families of viruses that use the same cellular pathway for their replication.
From this point of view, antiviral agents that target the signaling or metabolic mechanism of the host cell, or enhance the host cell's antiviral response, may be a more useful and versatile strategy. Papaverine *, artemisinin *, thapsigargin and antabuse are just such helpers. Modulating the immune response (increasing or inhibiting certain immune cells, as appropriate) and suppressing protein synthesis in host cells would also be a universal response.
Since the classification of a new virus, we will be able to abandon universality and move towards specificity. For example, if it turns out to be a non-enveloped virus, then essential oils or acid modulators such as andrographis are likely to be ineffective. If it is a coronavirus, Licoris (Lycoris radiata) can be added to the mixture, but only with a «cytokine storm», since it has an immunosuppressive property. Etc.
As we discover the personality and life cycle of an unfamiliar virus, we will be able to better adjust the composition of our healing cocktail.
Science does not stand still, and it is hoped that by the X hour we will have more effective weapons. Many of the recently discovered plant sources, such as licorice or thapsia, offer us their silver bullets, and perhaps new modern antiviral drugs will be created on their basis.